--- title: "Poisonous Payload case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Poisonous Payload ($6.70) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.34% over 182 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c rendered: 2026-11-12T10:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Poisonous Payload](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Poisonous Payload A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c?window=all) Price · $6.70 · 11,160 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.03 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.34% · 182 openings, odds method Variance · 22.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 108 openings · below min 30 days · 96.34% ±68.28 182 openings since tracking started · 96.34% ±68.28 182 openings -0.5% 126.0% 252.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c?window=24h) | 18 | 34.88% ±217.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c?window=7d) | 108 | 97.88% ±88.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c) | 182 | 96.34% ±68.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c?window=all) | 182 | 96.34% ±68.3 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 182 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $757 1,260,878 BUX | 18.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $66.37 110,572 BUX | 33.0% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.65× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $22.04 36,718 BUX | 21.9% | 13 | 10.9 | 1.19× | | [Sticker \| Toxic Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-flow-holo) | 10.0% | $7.65 12,744 BUX | 12.7% | 20 | 18.2 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 6.5% | 24 | 27.3 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 21.9% | $0.72 1,199 BUX | 2.6% | 32 | 39.9 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 21.9% | $0.66 1,099 BUX | 2.4% | 53 | 39.9 | 1.33× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 21.9% | $0.55 916 BUX | 2.0% | 31 | 39.9 | 0.78× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0c) [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $22.04 36,718 BUX 3.29x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) [ALT-F4](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/ALT-F4) $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | Toxic Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-flow-holo) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $7.65 12,744 BUX 1.14x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) Hidden $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.70 11,160 BUX $0.72 1,199 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.70 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.1% classified 3.0% mil spec 27.9% remarkable 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% Rare 21.9% Industrial Grade 21.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt