--- title: "Timber Tactics case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Timber Tactics ($17.30) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 51.35% over 122 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d rendered: 2026-11-12T08:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Timber Tactics](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Timber Tactics A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d?window=all) Price · $17.30 · 28,816 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $15.57 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.35% · 122 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 56.19% ±47.71 106 openings 30 days · 51.35% ±44.47 122 openings since tracking started · 51.35% ±44.47 122 openings 6.0% 55.3% 104.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d?window=7d) | 106 | 56.19% ±47.7 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d) | 122 | 51.35% ±44.5 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d?window=all) | 122 | 51.35% ±44.5 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $419 698,004 BUX | 13.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $210 349,193 BUX | 16.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $139 231,490 BUX | 17.9% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $82.95 138,194 BUX | 13.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $39.85 66,390 BUX | 10.2% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× | | [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $39.07 65,090 BUX | 10.0% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.84× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) | 22.5% | $5.73 9,546 BUX | 8.3% | 20 | 27.4 | 0.73× | | [Sticker \| WOOD7 (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-wood7-gold-paris-2023) | 27.5% | $3.27 5,447 BUX | 5.8% | 36 | 33.6 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 35.8% | $1.83 3,048 BUX | 4.2% | 50 | 43.6 | 1.15× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0d) [P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $39.85 66,390 BUX 2.30x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | WOOD7 (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-wood7-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $3.27 5,447 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Nova | Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-factory-new) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $39.07 65,090 BUX 2.26x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $17.30 28,816 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | WOOD7 (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-wood7-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $3.27 5,447 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [Sticker | WOOD7 (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-wood7-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $3.27 5,447 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $17.30 28,816 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $17.30 28,816 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $17.30 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.5% rare 1.3% Industrial Grade 2.0% industrial 38.3% restricted 4.0% Consumer Grade 4.0% consumer 22.5% Extraordinary 27.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt