--- title: "Cryptic Connection case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cryptic Connection ($13.85) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 67.50% over 490 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f rendered: 2026-11-12T09:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cryptic Connection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cryptic Connection A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f?window=all) Price · $13.85 · 23,080 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.47 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.50% · 490 openings, odds method Variance · 17.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 43.24% ±80.36 104 openings 7 days · 60.08% ±39.43 432 openings 30 days · 67.50% ±37.02 490 openings since tracking started · 67.50% ±37.02 490 openings -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f?window=24h) | 104 | 43.24% ±80.4 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f?window=7d) | 432 | 60.08% ±39.4 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f) | 490 | 67.50% ±37.0 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f?window=all) | 490 | 67.50% ±37.0 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 490 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,562 2,601,492 BUX | 12.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $256 426,745 BUX | 25.7% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $61.95 103,208 BUX | 24.8% | 24 | 24.5 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 10.0% | $18.99 31,637 BUX | 15.2% | 53 | 49.0 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 11.5% | $14.03 23,373 BUX | 12.9% | 57 | 56.4 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Hidden Hero (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hidden-hero-foil) | 21.5% | $2.74 4,564 BUX | 4.7% | 97 | 105.3 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 2.2% | 123 | 122.5 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) | 25.7% | $0.92 1,532 BUX | 1.9% | 133 | 125.7 | 1.06× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0f) [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Sticker | Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $0.92 1,532 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Sticker | Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $0.92 1,532 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $13.85 23,080 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Sticker | Hidden Hero (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hidden-hero-foil) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $2.74 4,564 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [Sticker | Hidden Hero (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hidden-hero-foil) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $2.74 4,564 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [Sticker | Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $0.92 1,532 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [Sticker | Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $13.85 23,080 BUX $0.92 1,532 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.85 23,080 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.85 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 6.3% industrial 10.0% classified 11.5% Legendary 21.5% Restricted 25.0% High Grade 25.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt