--- title: "Cosmic Conquest case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cosmic Conquest ($9.03) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 6 items with odds, observed 87.44% over 950 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cosmic Conquest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cosmic Conquest A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10?window=all) Price · $9.03 · 15,043 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $8.13 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.44% · 950 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.55% ±34.02 164 openings 7 days · 88.53% ±14.95 850 openings 30 days · 87.44% ±14.14 950 openings since tracking started · 87.44% ±14.14 950 openings 47.0% 81.5% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10?window=24h) | 164 | 81.55% ±34.0 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10?window=7d) | 850 | 88.53% ±14.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10) | 950 | 87.44% ±14.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10?window=all) | 950 | 87.44% ±14.1 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 950 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $175 291,333 BUX | 6.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $128 212,931 BUX | 11.0% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $73.92 123,150 BUX | 18.2% | 18 | 19.0 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $60.11 100,143 BUX | 22.2% | 27 | 28.5 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Space Soldiers (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-foil-boston-2018) | 13.0% | $18.38 30,621 BUX | 29.4% | 128 | 123.5 | 1.04× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 81.0% | $1.28 2,132 BUX | 12.8% | 769 | 769.5 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e10) [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $1.28 2,132 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [Sticker | Space Soldiers (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-foil-boston-2018) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $18.38 30,621 BUX 2.04x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [Sticker | Space Soldiers (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-foil-boston-2018) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $18.38 30,621 BUX 2.04x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $9.03 15,043 BUX $1.28 2,132 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $1.28 2,132 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $128 212,931 BUX 14.15x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $1.28 2,132 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [Sticker | Space Soldiers (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-foil-boston-2018) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $9.03 15,043 BUX $18.38 30,621 BUX 2.04x 2026-11-12 08:10 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $1.28 2,132 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:09 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $9.03 15,043 BUX $1.28 2,132 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.03 | 90.01% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 0.3% covert 3.7% classified 2.0% Exotic 13.0% restricted 81.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt