--- title: "Lava Flow case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lava Flow ($16.57) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.35% over 80 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lava Flow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lava Flow A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11?window=all) Price · $16.57 · 27,610 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.92 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.35% · 80 openings, odds method Variance · 13.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 80 openings · below min since tracking started · 80 openings · below min -0.5% 86.0% 172.5% **Small sample.** 80 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11?window=7d) | 68 | 72.25% ±87.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11) | 80 | 91.35% ±80.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11?window=all) | 80 | 91.35% ±80.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $767 1,278,521 BUX | 25.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $293 487,654 BUX | 19.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $41.92 69,838 BUX | 7.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $14.64 24,390 BUX | 4.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 20 | $13.21 22,007 BUX | 4.4% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [Sticker \| Eternal Fire (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-holo-antwerp-2022) | 25.0% | $9.04 15,060 BUX | 15.2% | 23 | 20.0 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 26.0% | $8.79 14,644 BUX | 15.3% | 24 | 20.8 | 1.15× | | [Sticker \| Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) | 35.0% | $3.33 5,547 BUX | 7.8% | 24 | 28.0 | 0.86× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e11) [P250 | Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $8.79 14,644 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $3.33 5,547 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Eternal Fire (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $9.04 15,060 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $16.57 27,610 BUX $8.79 14,644 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Eternal Fire (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $9.04 15,060 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $8.79 14,644 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [Sticker | Eternal Fire (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $9.04 15,060 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $3.33 5,547 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $3.33 5,547 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) Hidden $16.57 27,610 BUX $3.33 5,547 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $16.57 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.5% Covert 7.5% remarkable 5.0% exotic 60.0% restricted 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt