--- title: "Icebound Vault case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Icebound Vault ($7.55) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 96.94% over 584 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Icebound Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Icebound Vault A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13?window=all) Price · $7.55 · 12,584 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.80 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.94% · 584 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 97.99% ±20.89 546 openings 30 days · 96.94% ±20.20 584 openings since tracking started · 96.94% ±20.20 584 openings -0.5% 88.0% 176.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13?window=24h) | 16 | 53.69% ±122.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13?window=7d) | 546 | 97.99% ±20.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13) | 584 | 96.94% ±20.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13?window=all) | 584 | 96.94% ±20.2 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 584 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 1,000 | $522 869,885 BUX | 7.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) | 1 in 53 | $59.28 98,760 BUX | 16.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $22.31 37,168 BUX | 26.3% | 53 | 46.7 | 1.13× | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $9.99 16,643 BUX | 22.0% | 91 | 87.6 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.58 7,630 BUX | 10.1% | 87 | 87.6 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.87 4,781 BUX | 10.6% | 142 | 146.0 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 35.0% | $1.32 2,199 BUX | 6.8% | 200 | 204.4 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $522 869,885 BUX 69.13x 2026-11-08 23:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e13) [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $2.87 4,781 BUX 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $2.87 4,781 BUX 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.55 12,584 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $2.87 4,781 BUX 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $2.87 4,781 BUX 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.55 12,584 BUX $2.87 4,781 BUX 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $22.31 37,168 BUX 2.95x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $7.55 12,584 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.55 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% High Grade 1.9% classified 8.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% restricted 15.0% Restricted 25.0% mil spec 35.0% best hit $522 (69.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt