--- title: "Spectral Signature case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spectral Signature ($2.84) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.33% over 1,457 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Spectral Signature](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Spectral Signature A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16?window=all) Price · $2.84 · 4,726 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $2.55 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.33% · 1,457 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 96.73% ±14.04 740 openings 30 days · 86.33% ±10.01 1,457 openings since tracking started · 86.33% ±10.01 1,457 openings 16.0% 78.5% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16?window=24h) | 38 | 78.43% ±62.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16?window=7d) | 740 | 96.73% ±14.0 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16) | 1,457 | 86.33% ±10.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16?window=all) | 1,457 | 86.33% ±10.0 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,457 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 11.3% | 15 | 14.6 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 33 | $23.78 39,617 BUX | 27.9% | 34 | 43.7 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 50 | $20.98 34,952 BUX | 16.4% | 36 | 29.1 | 1.24× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.39 10,645 BUX | 12.5% | 62 | 72.9 | 0.85× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.49 4,148 BUX | 5.9% | 79 | 87.4 | 0.90× | | [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 13.0% | $1.11 1,849 BUX | 5.7% | 189 | 189.4 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-lifted-spirits-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.78 1,299 BUX | 10.7% | 488 | 510.0 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 9.6% | 554 | 510.0 | 1.09× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e16) [SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-11 22:09 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $2.84 4,726 BUX $2.49 4,148 BUX 0.88x 2026-11-11 22:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-lifted-spirits-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $0.78 1,299 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $6.39 10,645 BUX 2.25x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-lifted-spirits-factory-new) [user-81c4ab](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-81c4ab) $2.84 4,726 BUX $0.78 1,299 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-lifted-spirits-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $0.78 1,299 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) Hidden $2.84 4,726 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) [Lukis](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lukis) $2.84 4,726 BUX $6.39 10,645 BUX 2.25x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $2.84 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% Extraordinary 3.0% exotic 2.0% Legendary 5.0% restricted 6.0% violet 13.0% Mil Spec Grade 70.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt