--- title: "Sorcery Supply case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sorcery Supply ($19.52) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 46.46% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sorcery Supply](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sorcery Supply A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17?window=all) Price · $19.52 · 32,522 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.57 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 46.46% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 29.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min -0.5% 114.5% 229.5% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17?window=7d) | 28 | 29.29% ±199.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17) | 44 | 46.46% ±159.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17?window=all) | 44 | 46.46% ±159.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,053 3,420,264 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,308 2,179,327 BUX | 29.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $42.86 71,404 BUX | 18.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 16.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 12.5% | $20.12 33,519 BUX | 14.3% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 17.5% | $8.00 13,328 BUX | 8.0% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× | | [Music Kit \| Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) | 26.0% | $0.71 1,182 BUX | 1.0% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.31× | | [SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 0.5% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e17) [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.71 1,182 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 15:59 UTC [Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $20.12 33,519 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-09 15:59 UTC [SG 553 | Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-09 15:59 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) [user-6b253c](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-6b253c) $19.52 32,522 BUX $28.89 48,130 BUX 1.48x 2026-11-09 15:59 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.71 1,182 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 09:42 UTC [SG 553 | Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-08 09:42 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.71 1,182 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 09:42 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.71 1,182 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 09:42 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.71 1,182 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $19.52 32,522 BUX $0.71 1,182 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.52 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 12.9% Restricted 7.5% classified 10.0% #d32ee6 17.5% High Grade 26.0% violet 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt