--- title: "Veiled Shadows case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Veiled Shadows ($41.05) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 33.77% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Veiled Shadows](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Veiled Shadows A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19?window=all) Price · $41.05 · 68,396 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $36.95 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 33.77% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 11.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 102.0% 204.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19?window=7d) | 14 | 27.59% ±176.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19) | 22 | 33.77% ±140.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19?window=all) | 22 | 33.77% ±140.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,119 1,864,987 BUX | 45.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 1 in 25 | $126 210,599 BUX | 13.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $103 170,931 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $67.28 112,088 BUX | 10.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $54.21 90,313 BUX | 10.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) | 22.5% | $7.19 11,978 BUX | 4.4% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× | | [Sticker \| Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) | 27.0% | $1.23 2,049 BUX | 0.9% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× | | [Sticker \| Lost In Smoke (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lost-in-smoke-foil) | 27.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 0.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e19) [Sticker | Lost In Smoke (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lost-in-smoke-foil) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-07 23:35 UTC [Sticker | Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-07 23:35 UTC [Sticker | Lost In Smoke (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lost-in-smoke-foil) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-07 23:35 UTC [Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) [Mulli](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Mulli) $41.05 68,396 BUX $7.19 11,978 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-07 23:35 UTC [Sticker | Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-07 23:34 UTC [Sticker | Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-07 23:34 UTC [Sticker | Lost In Smoke (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lost-in-smoke-foil) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-07 23:34 UTC [Sticker | Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) [Mulli](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Mulli) $41.05 68,396 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-07 23:34 UTC [Sticker | Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) Hidden $41.05 68,396 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-05 17:55 UTC [Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) [user-a62de3](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-a62de3) $41.05 68,396 BUX $7.19 11,978 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-05 17:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $41.05 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.5% covert 4.0% industrial 5.0% Covert 6.0% Industrial Grade 7.0% exotic 22.5% blue 27.0% Exotic 27.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt