--- title: "Peak Performance case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Peak Performance ($17.09) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 67.26% over 50 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a rendered: 2026-11-12T08:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Peak Performance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Peak Performance A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a?window=all) Price · $17.09 · 28,467 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $15.38 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.26% · 50 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 50 openings · below min since tracking started · 50 openings · below min 6.0% 68.8% 131.5% **Small sample.** 50 openings and 10.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a?window=7d) | 48 | 68.73% ±62.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a) | 50 | 67.26% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a?window=all) | 50 | 67.26% ±60.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $691 1,151,206 BUX | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $172 286,601 BUX | 8.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $122 203,135 BUX | 7.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 18.0% | $39.07 65,090 BUX | 45.7% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) | 40.0% | $5.73 9,546 BUX | 14.9% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Leaving The Station (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station-holo) | 40.0% | $5.19 8,646 BUX | 13.5% | 22 | 20.0 | 1.10× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1a) [Sticker | Leaving The Station (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station-holo) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.19 8,646 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.73 9,546 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Leaving The Station (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station-holo) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.19 8,646 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.73 9,546 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.73 9,546 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.73 9,546 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [Sticker | Leaving The Station (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station-holo) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.19 8,646 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) [Caetanomaster](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Caetanomaster) $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.73 9,546 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [Sticker | Leaving The Station (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station-holo) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.19 8,646 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-09 17:48 UTC [Sticker | Leaving The Station (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station-holo) Hidden $17.09 28,467 BUX $5.19 8,646 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-09 17:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $17.09 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.2% industrial 0.8% Consumer Grade 18.0% consumer 40.0% Remarkable 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt