--- title: "Contamination Collection on 500 Casino: odds & RTP" description: "Contamination Collection ($7.77) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 109.38% over 607 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d rendered: 2026-11-12T07:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Contamination Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Contamination Collection A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d?window=all) Price · $7.77 · 12,946 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.99 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 109.38% · 607 openings, odds method Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 100.27% ±21.87 533 openings 30 days · 109.38% ±20.50 607 openings since tracking started · 109.38% ±20.50 607 openings -0.5% 81.0% 162.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d?window=24h) | 20 | 48.77% ±112.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d?window=7d) | 533 | 100.27% ±21.9 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d) | 607 | 109.38% ±20.5 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d?window=all) | 607 | 109.38% ±20.5 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 607 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $437 727,242 BUX | 6.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $124 207,083 BUX | 7.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $124 206,883 BUX | 7.1% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.06× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $68.79 114,604 BUX | 20.7% | 16 | 12.7 | 1.26× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $18.35 30,571 BUX | 18.4% | 32 | 42.5 | 0.75× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.87 11,445 BUX | 14.7% | 112 | 91.0 | 1.23× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.66 7,763 BUX | 13.3% | 126 | 121.4 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 27.5% | $1.63 2,715 BUX | 6.4% | 164 | 166.9 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 27.5% | $1.54 2,565 BUX | 6.1% | 149 | 166.9 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $437 727,242 BUX 56.18x 2026-11-08 23:25 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $437 727,242 BUX 56.18x 2026-11-03 12:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1d) [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $1.63 2,715 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $1.54 2,565 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $6.87 11,445 BUX 0.88x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) [Puzamah](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Puzamah) $7.77 12,946 BUX $4.66 7,763 BUX 0.60x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $1.63 2,715 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $4.66 7,763 BUX 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $4.66 7,763 BUX 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.77 12,946 BUX $1.63 2,715 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $6.87 11,445 BUX 0.88x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $7.77 12,946 BUX $6.87 11,445 BUX 0.88x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.77 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.1% mil spec 45.0% classified 0.4% Mythical 27.0% industrial 27.5% best hit $437 (56.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt