--- title: "Prestige Arsenal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prestige Arsenal ($37.62) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 77.05% over 152 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e rendered: 2026-11-12T07:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Prestige Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Prestige Arsenal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e?window=all) Price · $37.62 · 62,674 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $33.86 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.05% · 152 openings, odds method Variance · 17.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 79.97% ±71.18 136 openings 30 days · 77.05% ±67.33 152 openings since tracking started · 77.05% ±67.33 152 openings 8.0% 80.0% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e?window=7d) | 136 | 79.97% ±71.2 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e) | 152 | 77.05% ±67.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e?window=all) | 152 | 77.05% ±67.3 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,436 7,390,425 BUX | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $1,400 2,332,066 BUX | 18.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1,064 1,772,207 BUX | 18.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-field-tested) | 12.9% | $83.24 138,677 BUX | 31.7% | 23 | 19.6 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 21.0% | $29.49 49,130 BUX | 18.3% | 39 | 31.9 | 1.22× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 65.0% | $3.12 5,197 BUX | 6.0% | 89 | 98.8 | 0.90× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $1,064 1,772,207 BUX 28.28x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1e) [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $29.49 49,130 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $37.62 62,674 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [SCAR-20 | Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $83.24 138,677 BUX 2.21x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $37.62 62,674 BUX $29.49 49,130 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 62,674 BUX $29.49 49,130 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $37.62 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 0.4% classified 0.6% Mil Spec Grade 12.9% restricted 86.0% best hit $1,064 (28.28x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt