--- title: "Celebratory Shots case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celebratory Shots ($15.82) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 105.69% over 123 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f rendered: 2026-11-12T07:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Celebratory Shots](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Celebratory Shots A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f?window=all) Price · $15.82 · 26,352 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.24 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.69% · 123 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 105.69% ±28.03 123 openings since tracking started · 105.69% ±28.03 123 openings 77.0% 127.5% 178.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f?window=7d) | 56 | 136.04% ±41.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f) | 123 | 105.69% ±28.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f?window=all) | 123 | 105.69% ±28.0 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 123 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $205 340,813 BUX | 14.4% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.44× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $72.90 121,451 BUX | 20.5% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $46.75 77,885 BUX | 16.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $21.23 35,369 BUX | 14.9% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 15.0% | $15.12 25,189 BUX | 15.9% | 15 | 18.5 | 0.81× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 30.0% | $6.06 10,095 BUX | 12.8% | 46 | 36.9 | 1.25× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 35.0% | $2.08 3,465 BUX | 5.1% | 38 | 43.1 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e1f) [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 22:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $205 340,813 BUX 12.93x 2026-11-09 22:34 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 22:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) [strawhatya](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/strawhatya) $15.82 26,352 BUX $21.23 35,369 BUX 1.34x 2026-11-09 22:34 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $21.23 35,369 BUX 1.34x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $15.82 26,352 BUX $15.12 25,189 BUX 0.96x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $21.23 35,369 BUX 1.34x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $15.82 26,352 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.82 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 5.0% restricted 40.0% classified 10.0% covert 15.0% Rare 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt