--- title: "Cupid's Cache case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cupid's Cache ($12.49) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 177.20% over 140 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cupid's Cache](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cupid's Cache A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20?window=all) Price · $12.49 · 20,816 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.24 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 177.20% · 140 openings, odds method Variance · 29.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 133 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 128 openings · below min 30 days · 140 openings · below min since tracking started · 140 openings · below min 28.0% 555.2% 1082.5% **Small sample.** 140 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20?window=24h) | 12 | 775.13% ±306.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20?window=7d) | 128 | 122.52% ±94.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20) | 140 | 177.20% ±89.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20?window=all) | 140 | 177.20% ±89.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,023 1,704,901 BUX | 22.8% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| LoveYY (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-loveyy-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 200 | $617 1,028,421 BUX | 27.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $54.50 90,797 BUX | 25.4% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.50× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $21.91 36,502 BUX | 15.6% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× | | [Sticker \| Loving Eyes (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-loving-eyes-holo) | 17.0% | $1.99 3,315 BUX | 3.0% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) | 19.0% | $1.22 2,032 BUX | 2.1% | 25 | 26.6 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Skin Lover (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skin-lover-lenticular) | 20.0% | $1.03 1,715 BUX | 1.8% | 23 | 28.0 | 0.82× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kiss-blood-red) | 30.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 1.9% | 44 | 42.0 | 1.05× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $1,023 1,704,901 BUX 81.90x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $1,023 1,704,901 BUX 81.90x 2026-11-02 22:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e20) [Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kiss-blood-red) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $54.50 90,797 BUX 4.36x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $1,023 1,704,901 BUX 81.90x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kiss-blood-red) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $12.49 20,816 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $54.50 90,797 BUX 4.36x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $21.91 36,502 BUX 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $1.22 2,032 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kiss-blood-red) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $12.49 20,816 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $1.22 2,032 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kiss-blood-red) Hidden $12.49 20,816 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.49 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% Extraordinary 0.5% extraordinary 5.3% classified 8.0% #8847ff 17.0% base 19.0% Ancient 20.0% Base Grade 30.0% best hit $1,023 (81.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt