--- title: "Demon King case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Demon King ($13.05) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 63.06% over 137 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Demon King](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Demon King A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21?window=all) Price · $13.05 · 21,733 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.74 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.06% · 137 openings, odds method Variance · 34.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 128 openings · below min 30 days · 137 openings · below min since tracking started · 137 openings · below min -0.5% 81.5% 163.5% **Small sample.** 137 openings and 4.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21?window=7d) | 128 | 61.37% ±101.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21) | 137 | 63.06% ±97.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21?window=all) | 137 | 63.06% ±97.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,634 2,722,227 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,227 2,043,382 BUX | 20.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $84.26 140,377 BUX | 19.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $24.47 40,767 BUX | 14.6% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× | | [Patch \| Metal Silver Demon patch · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-silver-demon) | 10.0% | $18.08 30,121 BUX | 15.4% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× | | [Inferno Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-pin) | 30.0% | $5.41 9,013 BUX | 13.8% | 45 | 41.1 | 1.09× | | [P250 \| Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.47 783 BUX | 2.0% | 61 | 68.5 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e21) [P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 23:06 UTC [Inferno Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-pin) [mousev21](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mousev21) $13.05 21,733 BUX $5.41 9,013 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-09 23:06 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $84.26 140,377 BUX 6.46x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC [Inferno Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-pin) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $13.05 21,733 BUX $5.41 9,013 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC [Inferno Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-pin) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $5.41 9,013 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-09 21:36 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 21:36 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 21:36 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $13.05 21,733 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 21:36 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 14:11 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-well-worn) Hidden $13.05 21,733 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 14:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.05 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% Covert 2.7% Classified 7.0% Exotic 10.0% exotic 30.0% Restricted 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt