--- title: "Prismatic Projection case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prismatic Projection ($12.18) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 69.52% over 55 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Prismatic Projection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Prismatic Projection A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22?window=all) Price · $12.18 · 20,300 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.97 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.52% · 55 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 55 openings · below min since tracking started · 55 openings · below min 19.5% 92.8% 166.0% **Small sample.** 55 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22?window=7d) | 28 | 96.05% ±69.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22) | 55 | 69.52% ±49.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22?window=all) | 55 | 69.52% ±49.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 100 | $206 343,412 BUX | 18.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 25 | $59.54 99,193 BUX | 21.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 20 | $24.23 40,367 BUX | 11.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× | | [Sticker \| FURIA (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 13 | $16.54 27,555 BUX | 11.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-well-worn) | 12.5% | $11.01 18,342 BUX | 12.5% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.47 9,113 BUX | 7.5% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× | | [Sticker \| Apeks (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks-holo-paris-2023) | 15.0% | $5.22 8,696 BUX | 7.1% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| Astralis (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-holo-katowice-2019) | 40.0% | $2.73 4,548 BUX | 10.0% | 26 | 22.0 | 1.18× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e22) [Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $24.23 40,367 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [Sticker | Astralis (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $2.73 4,548 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [Sticker | Astralis (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $2.73 4,548 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [Sticker | FURIA (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-holo-katowice-2019) [fajfussss](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fajfussss) $12.18 20,300 BUX $16.54 27,555 BUX 1.36x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $5.47 9,113 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-09 15:56 UTC [Sticker | FURIA (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $16.54 27,555 BUX 1.36x 2026-11-09 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $59.54 99,193 BUX 4.89x 2026-11-09 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Apeks (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks-holo-paris-2023) [user-6b253c](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-6b253c) $12.18 20,300 BUX $5.22 8,696 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-09 15:56 UTC [Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-well-worn) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $11.01 18,342 BUX 0.90x 2026-11-08 19:15 UTC [Sticker | Apeks (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apeks-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $12.18 20,300 BUX $5.22 8,696 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-08 19:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.18 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Remarkable 41.0% remarkable 11.5% Legendary 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 12.5% Exotic 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt