--- title: "Night Operative case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Night Operative ($16.53) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 60.82% over 66 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Night Operative](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Night Operative A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23?window=all) Price · $16.53 · 27,546 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.88 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 60.82% · 66 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 66 openings · below min since tracking started · 66 openings · below min -0.5% 75.0% 150.5% **Small sample.** 66 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23?window=7d) | 24 | 60.51% ±89.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23) | 66 | 60.82% ±53.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23?window=all) | 66 | 60.82% ±53.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $320 533,103 BUX | 16.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $110 183,576 BUX | 24.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $102 169,648 BUX | 24.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-cologne-2014) | 10.0% | $20.44 34,053 BUX | 13.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 18.0% | $5.75 9,579 BUX | 7.0% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 19.5% | $4.69 7,813 BUX | 6.1% | 8 | 12.9 | 0.62× | | [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) | 21.0% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 4.9% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.30× | | [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) | 24.0% | $2.53 4,214 BUX | 4.1% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e23) [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $2.53 4,214 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $4.69 7,813 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $16.53 27,546 BUX $5.75 9,579 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $2.53 4,214 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $102 169,648 BUX 6.16x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $16.53 27,546 BUX $5.75 9,579 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $2.53 4,214 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-07 18:49 UTC [Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) Hidden $16.53 27,546 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-07 18:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $16.53 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 0.8% restricted 21.3% Covert 3.5% Remarkable 10.0% industrial 19.5% Consumer Grade 21.0% exotic 24.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt