--- title: "Vibrant Valor case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Vibrant Valor ($12.42) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.28% over 50 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Vibrant Valor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Vibrant Valor A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24?window=all) Price · $12.42 · 20,698 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.18 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.28% · 50 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 50 openings · below min since tracking started · 50 openings · below min 20.5% 95.3% 170.0% **Small sample.** 50 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24?window=7d) | 16 | 95.44% ±74.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24) | 50 | 90.28% ±41.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24?window=all) | 50 | 90.28% ±41.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $86.81 144,625 BUX | 19.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $72.90 121,451 BUX | 22.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $20.30 33,819 BUX | 13.6% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.60× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $19.14 31,887 BUX | 14.6% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.71× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $16.49 27,472 BUX | 14.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $11.84 19,725 BUX | 11.1% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 28.0% | $1.23 2,049 BUX | 3.1% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× | | [Prisma 2 Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/prisma-2-case) | 30.0% | $0.52 866 BUX | 1.4% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e24) [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $20.30 33,819 BUX 1.63x 2026-11-10 19:09 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-10 19:09 UTC [Prisma 2 Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/prisma-2-case) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $0.52 866 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:09 UTC [Prisma 2 Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/prisma-2-case) [admatron](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/admatron) $12.42 20,698 BUX $0.52 866 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:09 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $16.49 27,472 BUX 1.33x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $72.90 121,451 BUX 5.87x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $11.84 19,725 BUX 0.95x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $12.42 20,698 BUX $20.30 33,819 BUX 1.63x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $1.23 2,049 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-08 19:18 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $12.42 20,698 BUX $16.49 27,472 BUX 1.33x 2026-11-08 19:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.42 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 2.5% Covert 3.5% Legendary 7.5% classified 8.5% Restricted 9.5% covert 10.5% restricted 28.0% Base Grade 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt