--- title: "Visionary Deception case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Visionary Deception ($14.61) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 62.00% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Visionary Deception](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Visionary Deception A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25?window=all) Price · $14.61 · 24,344 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.15 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 62.00% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min -0.5% 138.5% 277.5% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25?window=24h) | 4 | 32.40% ±244.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25?window=7d) | 54 | 60.12% ±66.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25) | 68 | 62.00% ±59.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25?window=all) | 68 | 62.00% ±59.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $439 731,490 BUX | 16.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $138 230,507 BUX | 15.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $74.30 123,783 BUX | 16.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $33.10 55,144 BUX | 12.6% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $9.43 15,710 BUX | 10.8% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 30.0% | $5.97 9,946 BUX | 13.6% | 29 | 20.4 | 1.42× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.58 7,630 BUX | 7.0% | 11 | 13.6 | 0.81× | | [Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) | 25.0% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 6.7% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e25) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $5.97 9,946 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.61 24,344 BUX $5.97 9,946 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $33.10 55,144 BUX 2.27x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $5.97 9,946 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.61 24,344 BUX $5.97 9,946 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $5.97 9,946 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $14.61 24,344 BUX $5.97 9,946 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.61 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.5% Classified 1.5% classified 23.0% restricted 20.0% Restricted 30.0% exotic 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt