--- title: "Cryptic Necrosis case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cryptic Necrosis ($10.08) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 114.79% over 133 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cryptic Necrosis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cryptic Necrosis A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26?window=all) Price · $10.08 · 16,786 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $9.07 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 114.79% · 133 openings, odds method Variance · 8.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 117 openings · below min 30 days · 114.79% ±48.31 133 openings since tracking started · 114.79% ±48.31 133 openings 66.0% 261.8% 457.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26?window=24h) | 12 | 295.97% ±160.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26?window=7d) | 117 | 123.94% ±51.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26) | 133 | 114.79% ±48.3 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26?window=all) | 133 | 114.79% ±48.3 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 133 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $249 415,383 BUX | 27.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.26× | | [MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $87.65 146,024 BUX | 29.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 9.7% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $18.68 31,120 BUX | 13.4% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.39× | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $8.34 13,894 BUX | 6.9% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $7.09 11,811 BUX | 7.8% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-field-tested) | 19.5% | $1.33 2,215 BUX | 2.9% | 28 | 25.9 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| Skulltorgeist sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skulltorgeist) | 24.0% | $0.54 899 BUX | 1.4% | 32 | 31.9 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-battle-scarred) | 24.0% | $0.54 899 BUX | 1.4% | 29 | 31.9 | 0.91× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e26) [StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $0.54 899 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $7.09 11,811 BUX 0.70x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $7.09 11,811 BUX 0.70x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Sticker | Skulltorgeist sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skulltorgeist) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $10.08 16,786 BUX $0.54 899 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $0.54 899 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-field-tested) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $1.33 2,215 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-field-tested) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $1.33 2,215 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC [Sticker | Skulltorgeist sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skulltorgeist) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $10.08 16,786 BUX $0.54 899 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC [Sticker | Skulltorgeist sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skulltorgeist) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $0.54 899 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-field-tested) Hidden $10.08 16,786 BUX $1.33 2,215 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $10.08 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% #4b69ff 3.0% blue 4.5% industrial 6.5% restricted 7.5% mil spec 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 43.5% High Grade 24.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt