--- title: "Ocean's Bounty case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ocean's Bounty ($88.46) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 73.92% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Ocean's Bounty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Ocean's Bounty A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27?window=all) Price · $88.46 · 147,371 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $79.61 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.92% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 98.3% 197.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27?window=7d) | 4 | 80.49% ±116.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27) | 16 | 73.92% ±58.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27?window=all) | 16 | 73.92% ±58.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $642 1,069,905 BUX | 20.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $217 361,705 BUX | 13.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $155 257,530 BUX | 14.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 10.0% | $96.98 161,568 BUX | 12.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $95.45 159,019 BUX | 12.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $22.56 37,584 BUX | 14.2% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e27) [★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) Hidden $88.46 147,371 BUX $217 361,705 BUX 2.45x 2026-11-09 22:37 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.46 147,371 BUX $22.56 37,584 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-09 22:37 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.46 147,371 BUX $22.56 37,584 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-09 22:37 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) [strawhatya](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/strawhatya) $88.46 147,371 BUX $22.56 37,584 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-09 22:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $88.46 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.5% Covert 7.5% classified 10.0% restricted 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt