--- title: "Dune Raider case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dune Raider ($5.80) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 81.85% over 218 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Dune Raider](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Dune Raider A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28?window=all) Price · $5.80 · 9,659 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5.22 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.85% · 218 openings, odds method Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 90.07% ±44.86 160 openings 30 days · 81.85% ±38.43 218 openings since tracking started · 81.85% ±38.43 218 openings 43.0% 89.3% 135.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28?window=7d) | 160 | 90.07% ±44.9 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28) | 218 | 81.85% ±38.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28?window=all) | 218 | 81.85% ±38.4 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,237 2,060,825 BUX | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $105 175,713 BUX | 20.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $52.88 88,098 BUX | 10.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $14.22 23,690 BUX | 5.5% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.15× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $12.60 20,991 BUX | 7.2% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-well-worn) | 13.0% | $4.27 7,113 BUX | 10.6% | 30 | 28.3 | 1.06× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.34 5,564 BUX | 9.6% | 33 | 32.7 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-well-worn) | 15.0% | $3.32 5,531 BUX | 9.5% | 25 | 32.7 | 0.76× | | [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 25.0% | 116 | 109.0 | 1.06× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e28) [Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $12.60 20,991 BUX 2.17x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) [ItsFILIP4EVER](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/ItsFILIP4EVER) $5.80 9,659 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $3.34 5,564 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $3.34 5,564 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $3.34 5,564 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-well-worn) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $3.32 5,531 BUX 0.57x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $3.34 5,564 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC [Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.80 9,659 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.80 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% Industrial Grade 16.0% extraordinary 1.0% industrial 2.0% classified 3.0% Covert 13.0% Mil Spec Grade 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt