--- title: "Winter's Wrath case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winter's Wrath ($13.56) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 54.70% over 60 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e rendered: 2026-11-12T05:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Winter's Wrath](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Winter's Wrath A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e?window=all) Price · $13.56 · 22,593 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.21 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.70% · 60 openings, odds method Variance · 107.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 60 openings · below min since tracking started · 60 openings · below min -0.5% 170.3% 341.0% **Small sample.** 60 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e?window=7d) | 52 | 58.41% ±282.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e) | 60 | 54.70% ±262.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e?window=all) | 60 | 54.70% ±262.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,436 7,390,425 BUX | 36.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $77.54 129,181 BUX | 15.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $43.75 72,887 BUX | 14.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [Sticker \| DreamHack Winter 2014 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dreamhack-winter-2014) | 1 in 15 | $19.31 32,170 BUX | 10.3% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $14.08 23,457 BUX | 8.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [Winter Offensive Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/winter-offensive-case-key) | 12.0% | $6.40 10,662 BUX | 6.3% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 14.5% | $5.45 9,079 BUX | 6.5% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 52.9% | $0.40 666 BUX | 1.7% | 34 | 31.7 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2e) [Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $14.08 23,457 BUX 1.04x 2026-11-10 21:34 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:34 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:34 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) [jepsi\_pepsi](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/jepsi_pepsi) $13.56 22,593 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:34 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $5.45 9,079 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $5.45 9,079 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $5.45 9,079 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $13.56 22,593 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $14.08 23,457 BUX 1.04x 2026-11-09 18:41 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $13.56 22,593 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.56 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% Classified 4.0% pink 6.5% Industrial Grade 7.5% base 12.0% restricted 14.5% mil spec 52.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt