--- title: "Tidal Treasure case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tidal Treasure ($20.23) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 63.13% over 71 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f rendered: 2026-11-12T06:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Tidal Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Tidal Treasure A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f?window=all) Price · $20.23 · 33,701 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.21 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.13% · 71 openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 58 openings · below min 30 days · 71 openings · below min since tracking started · 71 openings · below min -0.5% 70.8% 142.0% **Small sample.** 71 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f?window=7d) | 58 | 70.25% ±71.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f) | 71 | 63.13% ±64.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f?window=all) | 71 | 63.13% ±64.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $948 1,579,368 BUX | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $301 502,065 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $117 194,555 BUX | 16.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $113 187,624 BUX | 15.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $77.65 129,364 BUX | 17.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.06 15,093 BUX | 5.0% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | ['Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) | 11.0% | $7.04 11,728 BUX | 4.3% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 31.0% | $5.43 9,046 BUX | 9.2% | 19 | 22.0 | 0.86× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) | 38.0% | $4.46 7,430 BUX | 9.3% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e2f) [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $5.43 9,046 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $5.43 9,046 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $113 187,624 BUX 5.57x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $20.23 33,701 BUX $4.46 7,430 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC ['Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $7.04 11,728 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $4.46 7,430 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $4.46 7,430 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $20.23 33,701 BUX $5.43 9,046 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $4.46 7,430 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 00:36 UTC ['Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $20.23 33,701 BUX $7.04 11,728 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 00:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.23 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Consumer Grade 0.2% classified 0.8% covert 5.0% mil spec 4.0% restricted 10.0% violet 11.0% Restricted 31.0% consumer 38.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt