--- title: "Heavenly Horizon case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heavenly Horizon ($24.28) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 52.57% over 48 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Heavenly Horizon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Heavenly Horizon A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30?window=all) Price · $24.28 · 40,456 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $21.85 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 52.57% · 48 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min -0.5% 74.0% 148.5% **Small sample.** 48 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30?window=24h) | 16 | 37.78% ±110.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30?window=7d) | 32 | 56.08% ±77.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30) | 48 | 52.57% ±63.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30?window=all) | 48 | 52.57% ±63.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 100 | $381 635,362 BUX | 17.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $261 434,092 BUX | 20.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $146 242,619 BUX | 18.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [Sticker \| Astralis (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-cologne-2016) | 12.5% | $38.13 63,524 BUX | 21.8% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× | | [MP9 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-factory-new) | 20.0% | $11.23 18,709 BUX | 10.3% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 22.0% | $10.13 16,876 BUX | 10.2% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× | | [Sticker \| Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) | 40.0% | $0.59 982 BUX | 1.1% | 17 | 19.2 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e30) [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [MP9 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-factory-new) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $11.23 18,709 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [MP9 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-factory-new) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $11.23 18,709 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $24.28 40,456 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [MP9 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-factory-new) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $11.23 18,709 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $10.13 16,876 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $24.28 40,456 BUX $10.13 16,876 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [Sticker | Astralis (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-cologne-2016) Hidden $24.28 40,456 BUX $38.13 63,524 BUX 1.57x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $24.28 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% restricted 1.8% covert 2.8% exotic 12.5% Consumer Grade 20.0% Restricted 22.0% high 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt