--- title: "Celestial Sentinel case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celestial Sentinel ($19.10) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 65.97% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Celestial Sentinel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Celestial Sentinel A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31?window=all) Price · $19.10 · 31,822 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.19 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.97% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 101.5% 203.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31?window=7d) | 16 | 65.97% ±137.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31) | 16 | 65.97% ±137.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31?window=all) | 16 | 65.97% ±137.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $835 1,390,560 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $398 663,251 BUX | 11.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $383 638,494 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $145 241,703 BUX | 32.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 20.5% | $19.87 33,103 BUX | 23.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× | | [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 25.0% | $9.29 15,477 BUX | 13.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 49.5% | $0.80 1,332 BUX | 2.3% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e31) [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $19.87 33,103 BUX 1.04x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $19.10 31,822 BUX $145 241,703 BUX 7.60x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $9.29 15,477 BUX 0.49x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.10 31,822 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.10 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 0.5% covert 4.4% Classified 20.5% restricted 25.0% Mil Spec Grade 49.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt