--- title: "Celestial Shadows case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celestial Shadows ($21.75) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 71.64% over 88 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Celestial Shadows](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Celestial Shadows A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33?window=all) Price · $21.75 · 36,239 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $19.58 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.64% · 88 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 88 openings · below min since tracking started · 88 openings · below min -0.5% 136.8% 274.0% **Small sample.** 88 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33?window=24h) | 4 | 13.34% ±260.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33?window=7d) | 80 | 68.95% ±58.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33) | 88 | 71.64% ±55.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33?window=all) | 88 | 71.64% ±55.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $309 514,327 BUX | 23.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $308 513,911 BUX | 23.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-night-ops-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $142 235,755 BUX | 28.9% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) | 15.0% | $18.04 30,054 BUX | 13.8% | 19 | 13.2 | 1.44× | | [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) | 20.0% | $4.29 7,147 BUX | 4.4% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 22.5% | $3.10 5,164 BUX | 3.6% | 16 | 19.8 | 0.81× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 35.5% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 2.0% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e33) [FAMAS | Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $4.29 7,147 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $3.10 5,164 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $1.12 1,865 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $3.10 5,164 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $3.10 5,164 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $1.12 1,865 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $18.04 30,054 BUX 0.83x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $21.75 36,239 BUX $18.04 30,054 BUX 0.83x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $3.10 5,164 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-well-worn) Hidden $21.75 36,239 BUX $18.04 30,054 BUX 0.83x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $21.75 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.5% Covert 1.5% Industrial Grade 19.0% Consumer Grade 20.0% Ancient 22.5% restricted 35.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt