--- title: "Birthday Bash case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Birthday Bash ($20.46) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 69.98% over 42 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Birthday Bash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Birthday Bash A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34?window=all) Price · $20.46 · 34,087 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.41 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.98% · 42 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 42 openings · below min since tracking started · 42 openings · below min -0.5% 72.5% 145.5% **Small sample.** 42 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34?window=7d) | 26 | 64.20% ±80.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34) | 42 | 69.98% ±63.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34?window=all) | 42 | 69.98% ±63.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $327 544,648 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $199 331,034 BUX | 16.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $144 239,204 BUX | 17.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| Happy (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-happy-foil-atlanta-2017) | 10.5% | $50.18 83,599 BUX | 28.6% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) | 22.0% | $14.64 24,390 BUX | 17.5% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-battle-scarred) | 29.0% | $3.46 5,764 BUX | 5.4% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× | | [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) | 34.0% | $0.76 1,266 BUX | 1.4% | 22 | 14.3 | 1.54× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e34) [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $0.76 1,266 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $0.76 1,266 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $14.64 24,390 BUX 0.72x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $20.46 34,087 BUX $14.64 24,390 BUX 0.72x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $0.76 1,266 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $3.46 5,764 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $3.46 5,764 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $20.46 34,087 BUX $0.76 1,266 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $0.76 1,266 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-07 23:52 UTC [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) Hidden $20.46 34,087 BUX $0.76 1,266 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-07 23:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.46 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% restricted 1.5% Exotic 10.5% industrial 22.0% Consumer Grade 29.0% Base Grade 34.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt