--- title: "Arcane Secrets case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arcane Secrets ($16.72) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 58.63% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Arcane Secrets](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Arcane Secrets A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35?window=all) Price · $16.72 · 27,863 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $15.05 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.63% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min -0.5% 101.8% 204.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35?window=7d) | 20 | 78.89% ±124.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35) | 36 | 58.63% ±92.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35?window=all) | 36 | 58.63% ±92.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $553 921,397 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $288 479,541 BUX | 19.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $195 324,370 BUX | 22.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $58.84 98,027 BUX | 19.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 12.0% | $13.08 21,791 BUX | 10.4% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.62× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 12.0% | $12.96 21,591 BUX | 10.3% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 18.0% | $5.79 9,646 BUX | 6.9% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) | 50.0% | $0.55 916 BUX | 1.8% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e35) [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $16.72 27,863 BUX $13.08 21,791 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $16.72 27,863 BUX $5.79 9,646 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-09 18:52 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $58.84 98,027 BUX 3.52x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.72 27,863 BUX $0.55 916 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $16.72 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 2.0% classified 13.0% Classified 5.0% exotic 12.0% #d32ee6 18.0% Mil Spec Grade 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt