--- title: "Urban Assault case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Urban Assault ($31.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 106.83% over 19 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Urban Assault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Urban Assault A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36?window=all) Price · $31.78 · 52,940 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $28.60 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.83% · 19 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 17 openings · below min 30 days · 19 openings · below min since tracking started · 19 openings · below min 43.5% 114.5% 185.5% **Small sample.** 19 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36?window=7d) | 17 | 118.48% ±66.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36) | 19 | 106.83% ±62.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36?window=all) | 19 | 106.83% ±62.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $408 680,011 BUX | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $211 351,792 BUX | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $182 302,412 BUX | 9.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $124 207,083 BUX | 13.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $87.99 146,591 BUX | 18.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $81.64 136,012 BUX | 20.0% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.26× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $79.91 133,130 BUX | 22.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $15.11 25,173 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-well-worn) | 20.0% | $3.67 6,114 BUX | 2.6% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 39.0% | $1.30 2,165 BUX | 1.8% | 5 | 7.4 | 0.67× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e36) [SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $182 302,412 BUX 5.71x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $81.64 136,012 BUX 2.57x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $1.30 2,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $31.78 52,940 BUX $1.30 2,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $1.30 2,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-07 23:22 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-well-worn) [Mulli](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Mulli) $31.78 52,940 BUX $3.67 6,114 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-07 23:22 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $81.64 136,012 BUX 2.57x 2026-11-07 17:10 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $3.67 6,114 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-07 17:10 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $3.67 6,114 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-07 17:10 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) Hidden $31.78 52,940 BUX $79.91 133,130 BUX 2.51x 2026-11-07 17:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $31.78 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 6.5% Classified 1.5% mil spec 3.0% covert 7.0% #ffd700 8.0% Industrial Grade 35.0% #4b69ff 39.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt