--- title: "Graveyard Shift case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Graveyard Shift ($11.98) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 104.35% over 363 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Graveyard Shift](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Graveyard Shift A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37?window=all) Price · $11.98 · 19,966 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.79 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.35% · 363 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 106.85% ±34.98 347 openings 30 days · 104.35% ±34.20 363 openings since tracking started · 104.35% ±34.20 363 openings -0.5% 126.0% 252.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37?window=24h) | 12 | 63.54% ±188.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37?window=7d) | 347 | 106.85% ±35.0 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37) | 363 | 104.35% ±34.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37?window=all) | 363 | 104.35% ±34.2 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 363 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $853 1,421,431 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| ESL Skull (Foil) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-skull-foil-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $437 727,408 BUX | 12.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $109 182,177 BUX | 15.2% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $64.42 107,323 BUX | 20.9% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $30.90 51,479 BUX | 14.3% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 12.7% | 25 | 25.4 | 0.98× | | [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 22.6% | $3.40 5,664 BUX | 7.1% | 86 | 82.0 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $2.37 3,948 BUX | 5.7% | 89 | 94.4 | 0.94× | | [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 34.0% | $1.27 2,115 BUX | 4.0% | 128 | 123.4 | 1.04× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $853 1,421,431 BUX 71.19x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $11.98 19,966 BUX $853 1,421,431 BUX 71.19x 2026-11-11 01:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e37) [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $2.37 3,948 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $2.37 3,948 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $2.37 3,948 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) [Puzamah](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Puzamah) $11.98 19,966 BUX $2.37 3,948 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $1.27 2,115 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $2.37 3,948 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $3.40 5,664 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $11.98 19,966 BUX $3.40 5,664 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $1.27 2,115 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) Hidden $11.98 19,966 BUX $3.40 5,664 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.98 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% Exotic 0.3% Covert 3.5% Classified 31.0% blue 7.0% classified 56.6% best hit $853 (71.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt