--- title: "Nature's Nook case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nature's Nook ($7.32) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 55.47% over 129 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Nature's Nook](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Nature's Nook A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38?window=all) Price · $7.32 · 12,197 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.59 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.47% · 129 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 98 openings · below min 30 days · 55.47% ±30.09 129 openings since tracking started · 55.47% ±30.09 129 openings -0.5% 66.8% 134.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (25.38% – 85.55%, 129 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38?window=24h) | 16 | 48.10% ±85.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38?window=7d) | 98 | 55.61% ±34.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38) | 129 | 55.47% ±30.1 | −2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38?window=all) | 129 | 55.47% ±30.1 | −2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $96.69 161,085 BUX | 14.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $58.08 96,761 BUX | 17.6% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [XM1014 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $27.87 46,431 BUX | 12.7% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.59 17,642 BUX | 16.1% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) | 14.0% | $7.27 12,111 BUX | 15.4% | 25 | 18.1 | 1.38× | | [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $2.52 4,198 BUX | 11.5% | 45 | 38.7 | 1.16× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $1.98 3,298 BUX | 12.0% | 46 | 51.6 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e38) [MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $2.52 4,198 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $2.52 4,198 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.32 12,197 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $2.52 4,198 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $10.59 17,642 BUX 1.45x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.32 12,197 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.32 12,197 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.32 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.0% Industrial Grade 42.0% Consumer Grade 13.0% industrial 44.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt