--- title: "Shadow Strike case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shadow Strike ($85.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 60.38% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Shadow Strike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Shadow Strike A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39?window=all) Price · $85.78 · 142,908 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $77.20 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 60.38% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 45.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min 11.0% 63.8% 116.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 13.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39?window=7d) | 20 | 63.84% ±52.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39) | 30 | 60.38% ±42.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39?window=all) | 30 | 60.38% ±42.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,334 2,223,177 BUX | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $828 1,379,814 BUX | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $171 284,369 BUX | 8.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Foil) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-foil-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 13 | $139 231,524 BUX | 13.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 1 in 13 | $126 210,599 BUX | 12.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2015) | 25.0% | $81.19 135,262 BUX | 26.3% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 55.0% | $37.04 61,708 BUX | 26.4% | 22 | 16.5 | 1.33× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e39) [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $81.19 135,262 BUX 0.95x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2015) [DOLLER. CHONG](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/DOLLER.%20CHONG) $85.78 142,908 BUX $81.19 135,262 BUX 0.95x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) [DOLLER. CHONG](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/DOLLER.%20CHONG) $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $85.78 142,908 BUX $171 284,369 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) [DOLLER. CHONG](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/DOLLER.%20CHONG) $85.78 142,908 BUX $37.04 61,708 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $85.78 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.5% Covert 4.0% Exotic 7.5% Remarkable 25.0% industrial 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt