--- title: "Green Gem case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Green Gem ($68.13) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.92% over 1,866 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a rendered: 2026-11-12T09:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Green Gem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Green Gem A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a?window=all) Price · $68.13 · 113,500 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $61.31 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.92% · 1,866 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.61% ±6.84 560 openings 7 days · 90.93% ±3.86 1,758 openings 30 days · 91.92% ±3.75 1,866 openings since tracking started · 91.92% ±3.75 1,866 openings 86.0% 93.5% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a?window=24h) | 560 | 93.61% ±6.84 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a?window=7d) | 1,758 | 90.93% ±3.86 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a) | 1,866 | 91.92% ±3.75 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a?window=all) | 1,866 | 91.92% ±3.75 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,866 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,308 13,841,727 BUX | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $251 418,032 BUX | 8.2% | 43 | 37.3 | 1.15× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $244 405,954 BUX | 7.9% | 29 | 37.3 | 0.78× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $186 310,425 BUX | 9.1% | 76 | 56.0 | 1.36× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $98.81 164,617 BUX | 16.1% | 200 | 186.6 | 1.07× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-field-tested) | 12.0% | $82.92 138,144 BUX | 16.2% | 207 | 223.9 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 33.0% | $37.67 62,758 BUX | 20.3% | 632 | 615.8 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 38.0% | $35.50 59,143 BUX | 22.0% | 679 | 709.1 | 0.96× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e3a) [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $98.81 164,617 BUX 1.45x 2026-11-12 00:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $37.67 62,758 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-12 00:38 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $35.50 59,143 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-12 00:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $68.13 113,500 BUX $251 418,032 BUX 3.68x 2026-11-12 00:38 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $82.92 138,144 BUX 1.22x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $35.50 59,143 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $37.67 62,758 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $68.13 113,500 BUX $37.67 62,758 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $35.50 59,143 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 113,500 BUX $35.50 59,143 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $68.13 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% restricted 4.0% Covert 36.0% classified 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 12.0% mil spec 38.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt