--- title: "Verdant Decay case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Verdant Decay ($375.42) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 199.78% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Verdant Decay](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Verdant Decay A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43?window=all) Price · $375.42 · 625,447 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $337.88 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 199.78% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min 53.0% 200.0% 347.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43?window=24h) | 4 | 199.78% ±146.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43?window=7d) | 4 | 199.78% ±146.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43) | 4 | 199.78% ±146.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43?window=all) | 4 | 199.78% ±146.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Secret Agent's Uranium Coin (Uranium) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/secret-agents-uranium-coin-uranium) | 1 in 200 | $3,200 5,331,200 BUX | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rock Of Jade (Silica Mineral) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/rock-of-jade-silica-mineral) | 1 in 100 | $3,169 5,279,160 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) | 1 in 40 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 20.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Precious Stone of Onyx (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-onyx-gemstone) | 16.0% | $684 1,140,258 BUX | 32.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Lots Of Gems Of Emerald (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-emerald-gemstone) | 20.0% | $251 418,000 BUX | 14.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Antique Uranium Marble Set (Uranium) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/antique-uranium-marble-set-uranium) | 25.0% | $140 233,240 BUX | 10.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Vintage Uranium Glass Vase (Uranium) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/vintage-uranium-glass-vase-uranium) | 35.0% | $80.00 133,280 BUX | 8.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $375 625,447 BUX $2,700 4,498,200 BUX 7.19x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e43) [Antique Uranium Marble Set (Uranium) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/antique-uranium-marble-set-uranium) Hidden $375 625,447 BUX $140 233,240 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Vintage Uranium Glass Vase (Uranium) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/vintage-uranium-glass-vase-uranium) Hidden $375 625,447 BUX $80.00 133,280 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Vintage Uranium Glass Vase (Uranium) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/vintage-uranium-glass-vase-uranium) Hidden $375 625,447 BUX $80.00 133,280 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $375 625,447 BUX $2,700 4,498,200 BUX 7.19x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $375 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 3.0% Covert 21.0% Classified 16.0% Industrial Grade 25.0% Consumer Grade 35.0% best hit $2,700 (7.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt