--- title: "Ice Peak case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ice Peak ($199.69) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 50.10% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d rendered: 2026-11-12T07:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Ice Peak](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Ice Peak A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d?window=all) Price · $199.69 · 332,681 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $179.72 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 50.10% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 153.3% 307.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d?window=24h) | 4 | 52.40% ±254.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d?window=7d) | 8 | 50.10% ±179.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d) | 8 | 50.10% ±179.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d?window=all) | 8 | 50.10% ±179.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Crystal From An Alien Planet (Lithium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-from-an-alien-planet-lithium) | 1 in 100 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 27.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Precious Stone of Sunstone (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-sunstone-quartz) | 1 in 25 | $802 1,335,498 BUX | 17.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Shards Of Diamond (Gemstone) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-diamond-gemstone) | 1 in 20 | $569 947,500 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) | 10.0% | $240 399,840 BUX | 13.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Pearl Prism Pendant other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-prism-pendant) | 15.0% | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 6.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Mermaid's Pearl Earring (Pearl) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mermaids-pearl-earring-pearl) | 15.0% | $72.00 119,952 BUX | 6.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-opal-silica-mineral) | 15.0% | $71.79 119,600 BUX | 6.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | | [Pendant (Pearl) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pearl) | 35.0% | $35.00 58,310 BUX | 6.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4d) [Pendant (Pearl) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pearl) Hidden $200 332,681 BUX $35.00 58,310 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-opal-silica-mineral) Hidden $200 332,681 BUX $71.79 119,600 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-opal-silica-mineral) Hidden $200 332,681 BUX $71.79 119,600 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $200 332,681 BUX $240 399,840 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-opal-silica-mineral) Hidden $200 332,681 BUX $71.79 119,600 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC [Pendant (Pearl) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pearl) Hidden $200 332,681 BUX $35.00 58,310 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC [Pendant (Pearl) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pearl) Hidden $200 332,681 BUX $35.00 58,310 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $200 332,681 BUX $240 399,840 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-07 12:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 6.0% Classified 4.0% Covert 10.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% Mil Spec Grade 30.0% Consumer Grade 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt