--- title: "Giggle Gambit case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Giggle Gambit ($14.57) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.58% over 59 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f rendered: 2026-11-12T07:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Giggle Gambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Giggle Gambit A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f?window=all) Price · $14.57 · 24,274 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.58% · 59 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 40 openings · below min 30 days · 59 openings · below min since tracking started · 59 openings · below min 61.5% 106.3% 151.0% **Small sample.** 59 openings and 12.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f?window=7d) | 40 | 108.87% ±41.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f) | 59 | 96.58% ±34.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f?window=all) | 59 | 96.58% ±34.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rocks Of Agate (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-agate-silica-mineral) | 1 in 100 | $187 312,000 BUX | 14.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Obelisk (Obsidian) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-obsidian) | 1 in 50 | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 5.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Lots Of Gems Of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-citrine-quartz) | 1 in 33 | $30.60 50,985 BUX | 7.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× | | [Cipher (Citrine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cipher-citrine) | 1 in 25 | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 9.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× | | [Heliodor Helm other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/heliodor-helm) | 1 in 20 | $27.00 44,982 BUX | 10.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× | | [Rhodium Rod other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rhodium-rod) | 1 in 17 | $26.00 43,316 BUX | 11.9% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.56× | | [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) | 34.0% | $8.00 13,328 BUX | 20.7% | 20 | 20.1 | 1.00× | | [Wooden Toy Car other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-toy-car) | 45.0% | $6.25 10,413 BUX | 21.4% | 27 | 26.6 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e4f) [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Wooden Toy Car other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-toy-car) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Rhodium Rod other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rhodium-rod) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $14.57 24,274 BUX $26.00 43,316 BUX 1.78x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Wooden Toy Car other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-toy-car) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $14.57 24,274 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Goggles (Galena) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goggles-galena) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-09 21:48 UTC [Wooden Toy Car other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-toy-car) Hidden $14.57 24,274 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-09 21:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.57 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 11.0% Industrial Grade 81.0% Classified 3.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt