--- title: "Warzone Mystery case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Warzone Mystery ($8.76) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.97% over 113 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Warzone Mystery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Warzone Mystery A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50?window=all) Price · $8.76 · 14,590 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.88 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.97% · 113 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 77 openings · below min 30 days · 93.97% ±19.24 113 openings since tracking started · 93.97% ±19.24 113 openings -0.5% 90.0% 180.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50?window=24h) | 2 | 35.12% ±144.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50?window=7d) | 77 | 102.11% ±23.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50) | 113 | 93.97% ±19.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50?window=all) | 113 | 93.97% ±19.2 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 113 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) | 1 in 100 | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 5.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 1 in 67 | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 8.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [Harp (Heliodor) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/harp-heliodor) | 1 in 50 | $40.00 66,640 BUX | 10.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [Golden Grimoire other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-grimoire) | 1 in 33 | $20.00 33,320 BUX | 7.6% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [Gems of Amethyst (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-amethyst-gemstone) | 1 in 20 | $17.63 29,375 BUX | 11.2% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.42× | | [Dagger (Diamond) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dagger-diamond) | 1 in 13 | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 14.7% | 2 | 8.5 | 0.24× | | [Knuckles (Brass) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/knuckles-brass) | 10.0% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 15.2% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× | | [Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-brass-metal) | 70.0% | $3.08 5,124 BUX | 27.3% | 78 | 79.1 | 0.99× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e50) [Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-brass-metal) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $3.08 5,124 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-brass-metal) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $3.08 5,124 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-brass-metal) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $3.08 5,124 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC [Knuckles (Brass) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/knuckles-brass) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 1.37x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC [Gems of Amethyst (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-amethyst-gemstone) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $17.63 29,375 BUX 2.01x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC [Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-brass-metal) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $8.76 14,590 BUX $3.08 5,124 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC [Knuckles (Brass) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/knuckles-brass) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 1.37x 2026-11-09 18:38 UTC [Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-brass-metal) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $3.08 5,124 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-09 18:38 UTC [Gems of Amethyst (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-amethyst-gemstone) Hidden $8.76 14,590 BUX $17.63 29,375 BUX 2.01x 2026-11-09 18:38 UTC [Harp (Heliodor) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/harp-heliodor) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $8.76 14,590 BUX $40.00 66,640 BUX 4.57x 2026-11-09 18:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.76 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 11.0% Consumer Grade 71.5% Industrial Grade 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.5% Covert 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt