--- title: "Discovery Dilemma case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Discovery Dilemma ($793.99) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 9.70% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Discovery Dilemma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Discovery Dilemma A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52?window=all) Price · $793.99 · 1,322,794 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $714.59 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 9.70% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 23.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 242.0% 484.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52?window=24h) | 4 | 9.70% ±474.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52?window=7d) | 4 | 9.70% ±474.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52) | 4 | 9.70% ±474.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52?window=all) | 4 | 9.70% ±474.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Treasure Map (Emerald) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/treasure-map-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $150K 249,900,000 BUX | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tiara (Tourmaline) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiara-tourmaline) | 1 in 222 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Zirconium Zenith Ziggurat other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/zirconium-zenith-ziggurat) | 1 in 40 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 17.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) | 1 in 25 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Throne of Thor (Topaz) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/throne-of-thor-topaz) | 1 in 20 | $1,500 2,499,000 BUX | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Gauntlet of Galaxies (Garnet) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-of-galaxies-garnet) | 1 in 14 | $1,250 2,082,500 BUX | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 13 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 10.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) | 73.5% | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 7.9% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e52) [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) Hidden $794 1,322,794 BUX $77.00 128,282 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) Hidden $794 1,322,794 BUX $77.00 128,282 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) Hidden $794 1,322,794 BUX $77.00 128,282 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $794 1,322,794 BUX $77.00 128,282 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $794 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 15.1% Covert 0.4% Exceedingly Rare 11.0% Industrial Grade 73.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt