--- title: "Lunar Larceny case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lunar Larceny ($175.30) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 204.24% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lunar Larceny](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lunar Larceny A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53?window=all) Price · $175.30 · 292,054 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $157.77 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 204.24% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min 89.5% 200.3% 311.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53?window=7d) | 8 | 204.24% ±106.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53) | 8 | 204.24% ±106.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53?window=all) | 8 | 204.24% ±106.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rocks Of Moonstone (Silica Mineral) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-moonstone-silica-mineral) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,044 6,736,500 BUX | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Lots Of Portions Of Meteorite (Debris) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-portions-of-meteorite-debris) | 1 in 250 | $2,465 4,105,920 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) | 1 in 50 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 9.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Pegasus Prism (Pearl) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pegasus-prism-pearl) | 1 in 33 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 1 in 18 | $599 997,934 BUX | 20.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Pendant (Platinum) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-platinum) | 10.0% | $235 391,510 BUX | 14.9% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [Cube (Tungsten) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cube-tungsten) | 12.0% | $199 331,534 BUX | 15.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Halo (Heliodor) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-heliodor) | 67.0% | $42.00 69,972 BUX | 17.8% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.19× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $720 1,200,000 BUX 4.11x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 3.42x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 3.42x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e53) [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 3.42x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Cube (Tungsten) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cube-tungsten) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $199 331,534 BUX 1.14x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Pendant (Platinum) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $235 391,510 BUX 1.34x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 3.42x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $720 1,200,000 BUX 4.11x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Pendant (Platinum) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $235 391,510 BUX 1.34x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Halo (Heliodor) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-heliodor) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $42.00 69,972 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Pendant (Platinum) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-platinum) Hidden $175 292,054 BUX $235 391,510 BUX 1.34x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $175 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 5.1% Special 0.4% Classified 5.5% Restricted 22.0% Industrial Grade 67.0% best hit $720 (4.11x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt