--- title: "Silver Sleuth case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Silver Sleuth ($12.77) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 65.19% over 71 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Silver Sleuth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Silver Sleuth A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54?window=all) Price · $12.77 · 21,279 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.50 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.19% · 71 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 71 openings · below min since tracking started · 71 openings · below min 9.5% 68.0% 126.5% **Small sample.** 71 openings and 12.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54?window=7d) | 56 | 68.04% ±57.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54) | 71 | 65.19% ±51.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54?window=all) | 71 | 65.19% ±51.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Bars Of Silver (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bars-of-silver-metal) | 1 in 67 | $234 389,280 BUX | 30.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [1oz Silver bullet (Silver) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/1oz-silver-bullet-silver) | 1 in 29 | $25.00 41,650 BUX | 7.6% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× | | [Silver Serpent other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-serpent) | 1 in 20 | $21.00 34,986 BUX | 9.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Silvered Sapphire Satchel other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silvered-sapphire-satchel) | 1 in 13 | $17.00 28,322 BUX | 11.1% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× | | [Sarcophagus (Silver) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sarcophagus-silver) | 10.0% | $13.40 22,324 BUX | 11.7% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [Silver-ish Sunhat other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-ish-sunhat) | 12.5% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 13.0% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× | | [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) | 60.0% | $3.25 5,415 BUX | 17.0% | 44 | 42.6 | 1.03× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e54) [1oz Silver bullet (Silver) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/1oz-silver-bullet-silver) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $25.00 41,650 BUX 1.96x 2026-11-09 22:21 UTC [1oz Silver bullet (Silver) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/1oz-silver-bullet-silver) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $25.00 41,650 BUX 1.96x 2026-11-09 22:21 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 22:21 UTC [Sarcophagus (Silver) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sarcophagus-silver) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $12.77 21,279 BUX $13.40 22,324 BUX 1.05x 2026-11-09 22:21 UTC [Silver-ish Sunhat other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-ish-sunhat) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 0.94x 2026-11-09 22:20 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 22:20 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 22:20 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $12.77 21,279 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 22:20 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $12.77 21,279 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.77 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Industrial Grade 30.0% Consumer Grade 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt