--- title: "Aurora Allegory case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Aurora Allegory ($104.13) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 63.50% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Aurora Allegory](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Aurora Allegory A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55?window=all) Price · $104.13 · 173,479 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $93.72 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.50% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 32.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 289.8% 580.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55?window=24h) | 4 | 21.13% ±558.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55?window=7d) | 8 | 63.50% ±394.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55) | 8 | 63.50% ±394.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55?window=all) | 8 | 63.50% ±394.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Earring (Emerald) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/earring-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Amulet of Atlantis (Amethyst) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-of-atlantis-amethyst) | 1 in 667 | $3,884 6,470,694 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jewel of Jotunheim (Jade) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/jewel-of-jotunheim-jade) | 1 in 125 | $850 1,416,100 BUX | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 1 in 67 | $599 997,934 BUX | 9.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Astral Amulet (Alexandrite) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/astral-amulet-alexandrite) | 1 in 40 | $450 749,700 BUX | 12.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 22 | $375 624,750 BUX | 18.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Palace Pendant (Peridot) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pendant-peridot) | 1 in 15 | $200 333,200 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Amulet (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-amethyst) | 42.0% | $22.00 36,652 BUX | 9.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× | | [Amulet (Alexandrite) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-alexandrite) | 42.0% | $22.00 36,652 BUX | 9.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e55) [Amulet (Alexandrite) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-alexandrite) Hidden $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Amulet (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-amethyst) Hidden $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Amulet (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-amethyst) Hidden $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Amulet (Alexandrite) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-alexandrite) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) Hidden $104 173,479 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 3.60x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Amulet (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-amethyst) Hidden $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Amulet (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-amethyst) Hidden $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Amulet (Alexandrite) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-alexandrite) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $104 173,479 BUX $22.00 36,652 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $104 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 2.6% Special 0.1% Exceedingly Rare 0.8% Classified 1.5% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% Covert 6.5% Consumer Grade 84.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt