--- title: "Agreed Upon case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Agreed Upon ($240.91) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Agreed Upon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Agreed Upon A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56?window=all) Price · $240.91 · 401,361 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $216.82 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Oculus of Olympus (Opal) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/oculus-of-olympus-opal) | 1 in 500 | $1,800 2,998,800 BUX | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 125 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Bracelet (Sapphire) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-sapphire) | 1 in 67 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 1 in 40 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Precious Stone of Amethyst (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-amethyst-gemstone) | 1 in 33 | $645 1,075,125 BUX | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Chef's knife (Adamantium) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/chefs-knife-adamantium) | 1 in 25 | $549 914,634 BUX | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Precious Stone of Aquamarine (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-aquamarine-gemstone) | 15.0% | $200 332,500 BUX | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 73.0% | $143 238,238 BUX | 48.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e56) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $241 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 0.2% Special 0.8% Classified 16.5% Covert 5.5% Restricted 4.0% Consumer Grade 73.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt