--- title: "Soft Suspicions case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Soft Suspicions ($26.08) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 79.83% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Soft Suspicions](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Soft Suspicions A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58?window=all) Price · $26.08 · 43,444 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $23.47 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.83% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 38.0% 80.0% 122.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 6.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58?window=7d) | 36 | 79.83% ±41.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58) | 36 | 79.83% ±41.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58?window=all) | 36 | 79.83% ±41.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Origami Swan (Tungsten) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/origami-swan-tungsten) | 1 in 100 | $220 366,520 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 1 in 40 | $143 238,238 BUX | 15.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Lots Of Gems Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-zircon-quartz) | 1 in 15 | $82.72 137,808 BUX | 22.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.85× | | [Bangle (Beryl) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bangle-beryl) | 1 in 13 | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 9.5% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [Oculus (Opal) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oculus-opal) | 1 in 11 | $19.00 31,654 BUX | 7.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [Gold-sprinkled Glove other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gold-sprinkled-glove) | 10.0% | $17.50 29,155 BUX | 7.5% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [Gilded Gemstone Goggles (Gemstone) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-gemstone-goggles-gemstone) | 11.0% | $15.25 25,407 BUX | 7.1% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.51× | | [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) | 52.0% | $9.50 15,827 BUX | 21.0% | 21 | 18.7 | 1.12× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e58) [Gilded Gemstone Goggles (Gemstone) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-gemstone-goggles-gemstone) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $15.25 25,407 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Bangle (Beryl) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bangle-beryl) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $28.00 46,648 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $9.50 15,827 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $9.50 15,827 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $9.50 15,827 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $9.50 15,827 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $143 238,238 BUX 5.48x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Oculus (Opal) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oculus-opal) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $26.08 43,444 BUX $19.00 31,654 BUX 0.73x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $9.50 15,827 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-07 18:44 UTC [Oculus (Opal) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oculus-opal) Hidden $26.08 43,444 BUX $19.00 31,654 BUX 0.73x 2026-11-07 18:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $26.08 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 1.0% Consumer Grade 2.5% Classified 58.5% Industrial Grade 29.0% Restricted 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt