--- title: "Melodic Mystery case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Melodic Mystery ($46.41) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.27% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d rendered: 2026-11-12T07:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Melodic Mystery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Melodic Mystery A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d?window=all) Price · $46.41 · 77,316 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $41.77 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.27% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 109.8% 220.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d?window=7d) | 4 | 72.07% ±147.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d) | 12 | 96.27% ±84.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d?window=all) | 12 | 96.27% ±84.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Musical Flute (Mythril) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/musical-flute-mythril) | 1 in 100 | $599 997,934 BUX | 14.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sunburst-scepter-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $135 224,910 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $130 216,580 BUX | 15.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Playing Cards (Titanium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/playing-cards-titanium) | 1 in 13 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 18.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Figurine (Fluorite) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/figurine-fluorite) | 10.0% | $46.00 76,636 BUX | 11.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Iridium Idol other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/iridium-idol) | 10.0% | $46.00 76,636 BUX | 11.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | | [Harp (Heliodor) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/harp-heliodor) | 15.0% | $40.00 66,640 BUX | 14.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [Lots Of Coins Of Silver (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-silver-metal) | 47.0% | $1.78 2,968 BUX | 2.0% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e5d) [Iridium Idol other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/iridium-idol) Hidden $46.41 77,316 BUX $46.00 76,636 BUX 0.99x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Lots Of Coins Of Silver (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-silver-metal) Hidden $46.41 77,316 BUX $1.78 2,968 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Harp (Heliodor) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/harp-heliodor) Hidden $46.41 77,316 BUX $40.00 66,640 BUX 0.86x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Iridium Idol other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/iridium-idol) Hidden $46.41 77,316 BUX $46.00 76,636 BUX 0.99x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $46.41 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 61.0% Industrial Grade 30.0% Covert 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt