--- title: "Obscured Origins case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Obscured Origins ($35.01) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 228.99% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Obscured Origins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Obscured Origins A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67?window=all) Price · $35.01 · 58,321 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $31.51 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 228.99% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 89.5% 228.2% 367.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67?window=7d) | 14 | 256.89% ±109.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67) | 20 | 228.99% ±91.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67?window=all) | 20 | 228.99% ±91.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) | 1 in 1,000 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 3.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Chef's knife (Adamantium) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/chefs-knife-adamantium) | 1 in 250 | $549 914,634 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Titan Totem (Titanium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/titan-totem-titanium) | 1 in 67 | $300 499,800 BUX | 14.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Origami Swan (Tungsten) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/origami-swan-tungsten) | 1 in 50 | $220 366,520 BUX | 14.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 1 in 33 | $143 238,238 BUX | 13.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Playing Cards (Titanium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/playing-cards-titanium) | 1 in 14 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 21.8% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.14× | | [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) | 1 in 11 | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 22.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) | 77.0% | $1.73 2,880 BUX | 4.2% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $999 1,664,334 BUX 28.54x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e67) [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $999 1,664,334 BUX 28.54x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $35.01 58,321 BUX $143 238,238 BUX 4.08x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $35.01 58,321 BUX $1.73 2,880 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $35.01 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.1% Restricted 0.4% Special 1.5% Exceedingly Rare 2.0% Consumer Grade 3.0% Covert 7.0% Industrial Grade 9.0% Mil Spec Grade 77.0% best hit $999 (28.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt