--- title: "Confidential Crisis case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Confidential Crisis ($62.03) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 198.24% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Confidential Crisis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Confidential Crisis A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69?window=all) Price · $62.03 · 103,334 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $55.82 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 198.24% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 87.5% 227.5% 367.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69?window=7d) | 8 | 231.96% ±134.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69) | 12 | 198.24% ±110.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69?window=all) | 12 | 198.24% ±110.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 200 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 9.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 1 in 100 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 11.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Bars Of Gold (Metal) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/bars-of-gold-metal) | 1 in 67 | $567 945,230 BUX | 15.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Palace Pendant (Peridot) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pendant-peridot) | 1 in 22 | $200 333,200 BUX | 16.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Golden Key other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-key) | 10.0% | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Griffin Goblet (Gold) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/griffin-goblet-gold) | 12.5% | $75.00 124,950 BUX | 16.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Small Nugget (Gold) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nugget-gold) | 15.5% | $47.00 78,302 BUX | 13.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.15× | | [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) | 54.5% | $2.50 4,165 BUX | 2.4% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.76× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $1,000 1,666,000 BUX 16.12x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e69) [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $1,000 1,666,000 BUX 16.12x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $62.03 103,334 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Small Nugget (Gold) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nugget-gold) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $47.00 78,302 BUX 0.76x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Small Nugget (Gold) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nugget-gold) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $47.00 78,302 BUX 0.76x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Small Nugget (Gold) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nugget-gold) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $47.00 78,302 BUX 0.76x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $62.03 103,334 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $62.03 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 0.5% Covert 5.5% Classified 24.0% Restricted 15.5% Industrial Grade 54.5% best hit $1,000 (16.12x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt