--- title: "Reciprocal Approval case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Reciprocal Approval ($126.05) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 26.18% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a rendered: 2026-11-12T08:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Reciprocal Approval](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Reciprocal Approval A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a?window=all) Price · $126.05 · 209,998 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $113.44 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 26.18% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 100.8% 202.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a) | 4 | 26.18% ±175.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a?window=all) | 4 | 26.18% ±175.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rod of Ragnarok (Rhodium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/rod-of-ragnarok-rhodium) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,300 5,497,800 BUX | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Magic Wand (Uranium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-wand-uranium) | 1 in 250 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) | 1 in 67 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Pegasus Prism (Pearl) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pegasus-prism-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 12.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 1 in 33 | $599 997,934 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Musical Flute (Mythril) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/musical-flute-mythril) | 1 in 33 | $599 997,934 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Radiance Ring (Ruby) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/radiance-ring-ruby) | 40.0% | $90.00 149,940 BUX | 31.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [Mood Ring (Lithium) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mood-ring-lithium) | 50.0% | $14.00 23,324 BUX | 6.2% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6a) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $126 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 0.1% Covert 3.9% Classified 43.0% Restricted 3.0% Consumer Grade 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt