--- title: "Nebula Noir case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nebula Noir ($53.54) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 71.06% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c rendered: 2026-11-12T08:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Nebula Noir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Nebula Noir A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c?window=all) Price · $53.54 · 89,202 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $48.19 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.06% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min -0.5% 86.5% 173.5% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c?window=7d) | 14 | 71.06% ±101.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c) | 14 | 71.06% ±101.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c?window=all) | 14 | 71.06% ±101.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Precious Stone of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-sapphire-gemstone) | 1 in 667 | $1,623 2,703,750 BUX | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Bracelet (Sapphire) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-sapphire) | 1 in 286 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Labyrinth (Lapis Lazuli) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/labyrinth-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 200 | $537 894,642 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 80 | $375 624,750 BUX | 9.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sunburst-scepter-sapphire) | 1 in 13 | $135 224,910 BUX | 21.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) | 1 in 13 | $130 216,580 BUX | 21.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 22.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 19.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× | | [Shards Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-zircon-quartz) | 60.0% | $8.24 13,728 BUX | 10.3% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6c) [Shards Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-zircon-quartz) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $8.24 13,728 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-10 08:17 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) [mousev21](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mousev21) $53.54 89,202 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 2.43x 2026-11-10 08:17 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.80x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.80x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 2.43x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $53.54 89,202 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.80x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Shards Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-zircon-quartz) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $8.24 13,728 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.80x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [Shards Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-zircon-quartz) Hidden $53.54 89,202 BUX $8.24 13,728 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [Shards Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-zircon-quartz) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $53.54 89,202 BUX $8.24 13,728 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $53.54 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 60.5% Restricted 0.5% Mil Spec Grade 9.0% Industrial Grade 8.0% Consumer Grade 22.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt