--- title: "Illusory Impostors case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Illusory Impostors ($9.98) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 128.58% over 96 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d rendered: 2026-11-12T07:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Illusory Impostors](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Illusory Impostors A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d?window=all) Price · $9.98 · 16,631 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.98 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 128.58% · 96 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 88 openings · below min 30 days · 96 openings · below min since tracking started · 96 openings · below min -0.5% 255.0% 510.5% **Small sample.** 96 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d?window=24h) | 4 | 183.32% ±326.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d?window=7d) | 88 | 130.38% ±69.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d) | 96 | 128.58% ±66.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d?window=all) | 96 | 128.58% ±66.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Precious Stone of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-zircon-quartz) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,840 3,065,568 BUX | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Origami Swan (Tungsten) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/origami-swan-tungsten) | 1 in 204 | $220 366,520 BUX | 12.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Coin From The Lost City (Mythril) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-from-the-lost-city-mythril) | 1 in 133 | $199 331,534 BUX | 16.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Pearl Prism Pendant other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-prism-pendant) | 1 in 57 | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 14.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× | | [Mermaid's Pearl Earring (Pearl) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mermaids-pearl-earring-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $72.00 119,952 BUX | 16.0% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× | | [Figurine (Fluorite) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/figurine-fluorite) | 1 in 20 | $46.00 76,636 BUX | 25.6% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | | [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) | 40.0% | $2.40 3,998 BUX | 10.7% | 40 | 38.4 | 1.04× | | [Crystal (Quartz) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-quartz) | 50.0% | $0.40 666 BUX | 2.2% | 43 | 48.0 | 0.90× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6d) [Mermaid's Pearl Earring (Pearl) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mermaids-pearl-earring-pearl) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $72.00 119,952 BUX 7.21x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Crystal (Quartz) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-quartz) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Crystal (Quartz) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-quartz) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Crystal (Quartz) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-quartz) [user78f9bd25](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user78f9bd25) $9.98 16,631 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) [user-62df08](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-62df08) $9.98 16,631 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [Crystal (Quartz) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-quartz) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) Hidden $9.98 16,631 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $9.98 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.0% Exceedingly Rare 0.5% Mil Spec Grade 7.8% Industrial Grade 1.8% Consumer Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt